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Hello Melbourne, Move Over Sydney

Melbourne could be Australia’s next biggest city by 2031 if growth trends continue (Photo: Leigh Hennigham)

Right now Sydney is Australia’s largest city, but this may no longer be true by 2031 if current growth trends continue.

According to demographer Bernard Salt, if Melbourne maintains its current growth rate, its population will surpass that of Sydney by 2031, well ahead of previous estimates.

Historically, the population of Melbourne once exceeded Sydney’s back in the gold rush-inspired 1850s. By the time of Federation — the establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia — both cities were about the same size at half a million people each.

However, at the end of the 20th century, it was Sydney that took the lead with close to 4 million people, higher than Melbourne by about 600,000.

Sydney’s current lead is close to 350,000 but it is losing ground at a rate of 20,000 a year.

The difference in population between Sydney and Melbourne (The Australian)

Why is Melbourne attracting more growth than Sydney?

According to Mr Salt, Melbourne offers what Sydney cannot or is inclined not to offer — access to affordable housing on the urban fringes. Where the price for a house and land package on the fringes starts with the number three in Melbourne, Sydney’s more distant equivalent starts with a five.

Mr Salt added that it was the policies — Sydney’s “full” and Melbourne at 2030 — which changed the long-term fortunes of both cities.

Bob Carr, Labour premier and environmentalist, declared Sydney full in 2000. This led his government not to invest enough in infrastructure to accommodate expansion. Melbourne, on the other hand, planned for growth under Jeffrey Kennett’s government in the 90s, forming a plan for 5 million residents by 2030.

This plan opened up the Melbourne’s west region to new development and was the beginning of its transformation. Within a decade, the Gold Coast lost its place as the nation’s fastest-growing region to Melbourne’s west.

In November 2007, census ­results confirmed that Melbourne was closing the gap on Australia’s previously untouchable Emerald City. This trend has continued, and the last figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Melbourne added a record-breaking 108,000 residents whilst Sydney added just 83,000 — in the year to June 2016.

The housing and jobseeker market most readily gravitates to cities that deliver housing affordability combined with access to a capital city job market. And that is precisely what Melbourne is doing better than Sydney in the 21st century.

Whilst Sydney’s house prices continue to fall, Melbourne’s housing remains in demand. In the year to April 2018 house prices in Sydney have dropped by about 2.1%, whilst Melbourne has managed a healthy 5.3% increase.

The Future of Melbourne

As Melbourne continues to grow, it will reach an estimated 8 million residents by the early 2050s. More development of housing and infrastructure will be needed in order to keep pace with the city’s booming population.

Melbourne City Council has already submitted a proposal for two more underground rail tunnels by 2035 to cope with exploding population growth. The proposal also includes its trams having road and traffic light priority throughout the city – as in Zurich – to cope with the demand. An extra 116,000 people are expected to take trains into the city in the morning peak by 2031, which is almost double the present number.

The two proposed rail tunnels (Metro 1 & 2), with another – Metro 3 – a second airport rail line linking to Southern Cross (The Age)

Property group Stockland has recently announced plans to deliver more than 1,600 homes in the Melbourne suburb of Truganina. The $540 million residential project will be less than 30 kilometres from the CBD, and will span a 138-hectare area, comprising a community activity centre, local parks, town centre, primary school and a 54-hectare conservation zone.

For those that would rather live closer to the city, and have less need for a house and land package, Melbourne’s prime CBD zone is where it’s at. There have been several new luxury apartment developments in the CBD, one of them being the strategically-located Palladium Tower, which achieved an amazing 98 out of 100 walk score!

With a full host of amenities and a Woolworths supermarket on the ground floor, it offers luxury living right within reach of everything Melbourne has to offer. The Crown Casino is right opposite, and 2 tram lines on both sides lead into the CBD near the Free Tram Zone. The development is fully FIRB approved, and commands a high rental yield with an average of around 5.2%.

Article by Ian Choong

  • https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/bettercities/melbourne-set-to-become-nations-most-populous-city-by-2030s/news-story/59ab02029829655b7be9e894a0133cbc?nk=122e6921473baa0added54bc530e46f3-1524031882
  • https://theurbandeveloper.com/articles/stockland-to-develop-540m-residential-project-in-melbourne
  • https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-melbourne-property-prices-continue-to-slide-20180403-p4z7i2.html
  • https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-needs-two-new-rail-tunnels-by-2035-council-says-20180419-p4zalf.html
  • http://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-house-prices-fall-21pc-in-the-year-to-march-20180402-h0y91k
  • https://csiprop.com/changing-face-of-melbourne/
  • https://csiprop.com/properties/palladium-tower/

CSI Prop proudly promotes international investment property with high yields at low risk. Our portfolio comprises residential and purpose-built student property in cities across the United Kingdom (London, Luton, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, York, Glasgow, Scotland; Sheffield, etc); Australia (Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane) and Thailand (Bangkok). Our projects are concentrated in high-growth areas with great educational, infrastructural and job growth potentials. We aspire to make a difference in the lives of our clients by helping them achieve their investment goals through strong market research backed by third party experts and due diligence. 

Disclaimer: CSI Prop does not provide tax & legal advice and accepts no liability. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified tax or legal advisor for a thorough review.

Need advice or clarification? Call us for more information and/or to find out about our projects! Hotline: 03-2162 2260

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The University of Melbourne’s New World-Class Campus

An artist’s impression of the University of Melbourne’s new Fishermans Bend campus (Image credit: The Age)

The University of Melbourne is building a new campus in Fishermans Bend as part of an ambitious A$1 billion plan to create a world-class engineering school in Victoria.

The university’s 2025 Engineering Strategy plan also includes upgrading the engineering facilities at its main Parkville campus site and developing the former Royal Women’s Hospital site. The plan is expected to provide an A$8 billion boost to Victoria’s economy and generate over 15,000 new jobs by 2035.

University of Melbourne’s new campus a catalyst to innovation 

The new campus — the institution’s eighth, to date — is located within Australia’s largest urban renewal project, right in the heart of Melbourne. Construction begins this year and it is expected to be ready in the early 2020s.

Vice-Chancellor Professor Glyn Davis said: “The university will be a catalyst for new collaborations and investments, connecting industry and research in the precinct.

“We have a proud history of innovation in this country. The new campus will give our researchers and students opportunities to work alongside industry, and pursue rich careers right here in Australia.

“When surrounded by start-up accelerators, business incubators, cutting-edge research, development and manufacturing facilities, and test sites, our students can immediately put ideas into action,” he said.

The move to Fishermans Bend will expand the University of Melbourne’s capabilities to undertake large-scale research and innovation, such as autonomous vehicles and smart grid technologies, with the inclusion of on-site facilities such as wind and water tunnels.

University of Melbourne School of Engineering Dean, Professor Iven Mareels said that the new campus would help to create entrepreneurial leaders and transformative technologies of the future.

“The Fishermans Bend campus will initially enable 1,000 engineering and IT students and academics to collaborate with world-leading local and international companies across industrial sectors as diverse as transport, energy, food, mining, infrastructure and water,” he said.

Fishermans Bend is Australia’s largest urban renewal project covering 485 hectares in the heart of Melbourne. It will consist of five precincts across two municipalities – the City of Melbourne and the City of Port Phillip – and connect Melbourne’s CBD to the bay. By 2050, the area is expected to provide housing for up to 80,000 people, and employment for 40,000.

The population growth rate of Melbourne has increased to 2.4%, which means 110,000 people are moving to the city every year. Vacancy rates in Melbourne continue to fall due to the severe undersupply of housing. New-build apartments like the upcoming Palladium Tower in Southbank, are being constructed to address the lack of housing, which is less than 5km away from the new campus, and can be reached by bike in less than 20 mins!

Nearer still, and just 5 mins away by bike from Palladium Tower is the University of Melbourne’s Southbank campus, which is also undergoing a A$200 million transformation. This transformation, expected to be ready by 2020,  will see the Conservatorium staff and students co-located with their colleagues and peers at the Victorian College of the Arts at the heart of the Melbourne Arts Precinct.

Palladium Tower has a walk score of a near perfect 98/100, which reflects how easy it is to get around without a car. With a self-contained Woolworths supermarket, and the Crown Casino & Entertainment Complex, Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre, Melbourne Arts Precinct and the Royal Botanical Gardens all within walking distance, Palladium Tower is strategically located at the nexus of all the city has to offer.

Keen to find out more about Palladium Tower or other projects in Melbourne? Give us a call at 03-2162 2260 or 016-221 8691/9150. Feel free to share and comment on this article!

By Ian Choong

Sources:

  1. https://www.alumni.unimelb.edu.au/university-announces-new-engineering-campus
  2. https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/students-set-to-take-the-bus-to-melbourne-unis-1b-future-of-engineering-20171221-h08ihg.html
  3. http://finearts-music.unimelb.edu.au/about/campus/southbank-campus-development

CSI Prop proudly promotes international investment property with high yields at low risk. Our portfolio comprises residential and commercial property including student accommodation and carehomes, in cities across the United Kingdom (London, Luton, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, York, Glasgow, Scotland; Sheffield, etc) and Australia (Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane). Our projects are concentrated in high-growth areas with great educational, infrastructural and job growth potentials. We aspire to make a difference in the lives of our clients by helping them achieve their investment goals through strong market research backed by third party experts and due diligence. 

Disclaimer: CSI Prop does not provide tax & legal advice and accepts no liability. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified tax or legal advisor for a thorough review.

Need advice or clarification? Call us for more information and/or to find out about our projects! Hotline: 03-2162 2260

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The Spiraling Growth of Melbourne CBD

Housing is a necessity in Melbourne. As the population continues to swell, so must housing supply.

Perhaps the easiest measure of how deserving Melbourne is of the World’s Most Liveable City title for the 7th consecutive year, is its increasing population growth. That, and the fact that it is perhaps the most populated state capital city in Australia, with 75% of the population of the entire state of Victoria living in Melbourne city alone.

In 2016, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported Melbourne as having the most epic population growth of any Australian city, making up almost a third of Australia’s population growth. The contrast is quite significant, with 2.4% in Melbourne compared to 1.2% in the rest of Australia.

Australia’s population growth is faster than many OECD countries including Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and the UK. Image source & credit: ABS(For the record, Australia’s population growth is faster than many OECD countries including Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and the UK. This is an interesting fact because a developed nation’s growth is typically slower than that of a developing nation, hence property prices should grow faster in a developing nation. Australia, however, is the exception.)

In ABS’ latest report, Melbourne (Victoria) continues to headline the country’s population growth of 388,100 people, with an increase of 2.3% year-on-year.

But first, a short lesson in geography: Melbourne, with its population of approximately 4.8 million people, comprises the broader metropolitan area (also known as Greater Melbourne) as well as the city centre. Altogether, it consists of 31 municipalities.

However, this article specifically refers to the city of Melbourne which encompasses the Melbourne CBD, Southbank, Docklands and many of the suburbs in Melbourne’s inner city.

As of 2016, the estimated  residential population in the municipality of the City of Melbourne was 151,176. A whopping approximate of 903,000 people people were recorded as having travelled to, or were present in the municipality on an average weekday in that same year, an increase of 6% from 2014.

Statistics in the City of Melbourne’s Daily Population Estimates and Forecasts reveal that expansion in the city will continue, and is expected to hit 266,455 residents by 2037 due, largely, to births and immigration.  According to projection estimates, there will be over 1 million people in the city on an average weekday within the next 5 years, and 1.4 million by 2036.

By 2037, the population of Melbourne (CBD) is expected to reach 76,982. This is 44.68% higher than the population in 2017. Image redit & source: http://bit.ly/2rYxoi3

Recently, BIS Oxford Economics predicted that Melbourne is headed for an undersupply in housing. What makes this especially noteworthy is the fact that it was a complete reversal of its earlier prediction that the city would suffer a surplus of apartments! The consultancy has based its forecast on census figures that show Melbourne had 109,000 more people than previously expected.

“We thought it would get to a 20,000 excess (of apartments) in Victoria by 2018. We’re now saying in 2018, the market has still got an undersupply of about 2000 dwellings. We’re talking a 20,000 turnaround,” said BIS managing director Robert Mellor.

There are currently 25,321 private dwellings in Melbourne (CBD). By 2037, this is expected to increase to 56,838. Image source & credit: http://bit.ly/2rYxoi3

Spiralling Growth in the CBD

Figures by the ABS show that between 1991 and 2016, the population living within 10km of the CBD grew by 40%, from 743,000 to 1,042,000.

Melbourne’s CBD has also seen spectacular growth; with its population swelling from 1611 in 1911 to 15,249 in 2006 and 35,447 in 2016.

The increase in population is reflected by a sharply-tightened vacancy rate of 1.7% and 1.4% for apartment units and houses at as recent as Q3 2017.

According to Mellor, census figures show that the proportion of students rose to 27% demand for inner city apartments in 2016, from 20% in 2011. Students comprise a key demographic occupying apartments in the CBD, where Melbourne’s high-rise supply has been concentrated.

The increase in population is reflected by a sharply-tightened vacancy rate of 1.7% and 1.4% for apartment units and houses in Melbourne at as recent as Q3 2017. Image source & credit: Domain.com.au

According to SQM managing director Louis Christopher, the last time the figure slipped as low as 1.7% was in June 2007.

“This is quite remarkable — despite predictions of looming apartment oversupply in inner-city Melbourne, we are seeing vacancies fall rather than rise,” he said.

“Even in the Docklands the vacancy rate tumbled to just 2.4% (as at July 2017), down from a high of 6% in December.”

The tight vacancy rate is good news for landlords, especially if seen from the perspective of future population growth.

By 2037, the CBD’s population is expected to reach 76,982, 44% higher than the population in 2017. Interestingly, this growth forms 29% of the total projected population growth of the City of Melbourne within the same time frame — a significant percentage, particularly if you consider that the CBD spans an area of about only 6.2km2!

In terms of age, the CBD population will be dominated by the 25- to 34-year-olds, followed by the 35- to 44-year-olds by 2037. Logically and based on current property prices, the 25- to 34-year-olds represent the demographic that is most likely to rent a property.  Image credit & source: http://bit.ly/2rYxoi3

In terms of age, the CBD population will be dominated by the 25- to 34-year-olds, followed by the 35- to 44-year-olds by 2037. Logically and based on current property prices, the 25- to 34-year-olds represent the demographic that is most likely to rent a property.  

Meanwhile, housing looks set to increase too, with the number of private dwellings projected to grow to 56,838 in 2037, compared to 25,321 dwellings in 2017.

Back in the day, the CBD was probably last on a laundry list of choice residential areas, but this trend is changing. While the CBD may not be the cheapest area to live in Melbourne, there is a growing community of residents.

What will continue to draw the crowd and keep the CBD alive, are its industries and jobs, and its proximity to universities, festivals and the arts, food and beverage, services and retail.

Article by Vivienne Pal

CSI Prop proudly promotes international investment property with high yields at low risk. Our portfolio comprises residential and commercial property including student accommodation and carehomes, in cities across the United Kingdom (London, Luton, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, York, Glasgow, Scotland; Sheffield, etc) and Australia (Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane). Our projects are concentrated in high-growth areas with great educational, infrastructural and job growth potentials. We aspire to make a difference in the lives of our clients by helping them achieve their investment goals through strong market research backed by third party experts and due diligence. 

Disclaimer: CSI Prop does not provide tax & legal advice and accepts no liability. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified tax or legal advisor for a thorough review.

Need advice or clarification? Call us for more information and/or to find out about our projects! Hotline: 03-2162 2260