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Australia Property Outlook 2019

Australia is a diverse land that is home to a wide range of fascinating natural landmarks and iconic destinations. It is a multicultural nation that is warm and accepting of people from all over the world.

Boasting some of the world’s most beautiful natural wonders like the Great Barrier Reef (the world’s largest coral ecosystem), Australian Alps and home to special faunas such as the kangaroos and koala.

As the world’s 12th largest economy, Australia is one of the most well-developed countries in the world. Property is one of Australia’s largest assets and a strong contributing factor that influences its economic wealth.

On a global ranking, Australia has had the 6th highest rise in annual property prices over the last five decades, with house prices surging at an average increase of 8.1% per year.

Research by BIS and UBS shows 9 out of 10 properties made a profit in spite of the slowdown in the housing market. However, the market saw a moderation in 2018 with Sydney being the hardest hit, it affected investor’s appetite due to the stricter regulatory and lending measures.

A prominent factor that underpins the Australian economy is its population growth. Australia’s population grew by another 1.6% to 24.7 million in the 12 months to the end of September 2017.

Melbourne

Home to 4.9 million people. Source: ABC News

Known as Australia’s cultural capital, this city that is home to diverse landscapes and cultural history is the sanctuary for coffee lovers. From sandy beaches and historic museums to artisan cafes, Melbourne has it all.

Voted as the world’s most liveable city for seven consecutive years, Melbourne is home to a population of 4.9 million people. The city is set to beat Sydney to become Australia’s most populated capital by 2036.

After five years of steady growth, the Melbourne property market is in for a soft landing following its peak in November 2017. Though experiencing a slight fall, property prices in Melbourne are unlikely to crash as it is underpinned by a robust economy.

Being one of the 10 fastest developing cities and having owned Australia’s strongest population growth rate, Melbourne’s population is set to increase by 10% in the coming years. This has opened the gateway for higher employment rates alongside 35% influx of skilled immigrants. These factors contribute to the moderate rise in rental rates and property prices in Melbourne.

The undersupply of homes is another indicative behind the possible rise of house prices. Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) predicted that if the current situation persists, housing shortage could reach an excess of 50,000 houses by 2020.

With the current population growth exceeding 2%, increasing employment rate and construction activity, Melbourne and its surrounding areas are likely to produce many Hotspots going into 2019.

Last year,  “Melbourne dominated the HIA Hotspots report with 12 of Australi’s Top 20 building growth areas located around Victoria’s capital,” said HIA’s Senior Economist, Shane Garrett.

According to the HIA Population & Residential Building Hotspots Report 2018, the Mickleham-Yuroke area of Melbourne is Australia’s most wanted hotspot, with a population growth of 35.3% during 2016/17 and $222.9 million in building approvals.

Perth

Perth is in for advancement. Source: Property Update

As Western Australia’s sun-drenched capital, Perth has established itself as one of Australia’s prominent travel and business destinations.  

Home to King’s Park and Botanic Garden, one of the largest inner city parks in the world, Perth has some of the world’s finest brands to shop at alongside a thriving city life.

Despite being a city, it is not far from picturesque oceans and beaches. This balance between nature and cosmopolitan living makes Perth an attractive site for investment.

The Perth property market has taken a plunge in the last five years since its peak in June 2014.

With the falling values, research has suggested that the housing market in Perth is in for a bottom out with median house prices set for a decline over the period of 2018/19.

Nevertheless, property prices in Perth are expected to rise in the next two years. The outlook for the state’s economy remains positive with the market beginning to retreat again.

Industry analyst, BIS Oxford Economics, in its latest report revealed that Perth is tipped to have the second-fastest price growth in Australia by 2021, rising by 10%.

In some parts of Perth, prices are on demand year-on-year (y.o.y) where it has increased by 6.6% which indicates that the property market is in for recovery. Perth’s vacancy rate was at 5.1% for March 2018 and is forecasted to increase.

For investors seeking an investment prospect with promising yields and returns, Perth might just be the answer.

Sydney

What does 2019 have in store for the Sydney property market? Source: Property Update

Sydney is known as Australia’s leading global and premier city. It is the destination of choice for entrepreneurs, tourists and students alike.

Rich with a number of tourists spots such as the Sydney Opera House and Sydney Harbour, this city continues to grow in popularity.

Sydney’s housing market recorded a 0.7% price drop as of October 2018, bringing the overall 12-month decline to 7.4% — the largest annual price fall in the city since 1990.

Comparatively, on a longer span, over the last five years, statistics show that average house prices have increased by 51%. Despite the current fall, the property market in Sydney is expected to ascend in the near future.

Rising economic and population growth alongside the increase in employment rate are aspects that would surge the Sydney property market. Foreign investors continue to channel their interests here as prices are looking to rise again in 2020-21.

First home buyers are flooding into Sydney creating a potentially stronger market considering the upcoming initiatives and infrastructure projects.

The NSW government will be directing $A15.3bn towards infrastructure in the next year in order to improve the quality of living and provide a more efficient and convenient commute in and out of the city.

With all these advancements being made, Sydney is on its way to becoming a promising investment for foreign investors.

Brisbane

Brisbane has the most promising growth in the property market. Source: Property Update

Blessed with idyllic weather, award-winning food and wine, adventurous activities and fun destinations for weekend getaways, Brisbane is the hotspot among tourists and investors.

With the second fastest population growth in Australia, Brisbane is set for a prospering year especially in terms of its property market. According to BIS’s forecast, this city will see the strongest growth over the next three years with an increase of 13%.

Buyers and investors are drawn to the state’s affordability that it attracts a larger number of inter-state migrants with an overall dwelling of 5.9% y.o.y.   

Apart from its affordability, the city also shifted its focus on improving its infrastructure to accommodate increasing population growth, alongside the growing job demand.

The influx of large scale developments coupled with major employment hubs will further enhance the liveability of the city. These developments will significantly boost Brisbane’s employment growth and increase the demand for housing and property.

The Australian property market in for a rise, which means property investors can get better returns by buying now while the market is still low. If you are looking for property in the cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane and more — give us a call at (+65) 3163 8343 (Singapore), 03-2162 2260 (Malaysia), or email us at info@csiprop.com!

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Written by: Lydia Devadas
Edited by: Jagdeep Kaur
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UK Property Outlook 2019

As we enter into 2019, Brexit remains the biggest question for UK property investors — whether there will be a deal, no deal, or no Brexit.

The option of Remain seems off the cards, and despite the recent rejection of Theresa May’s deal by Parliament, we think that the risk of a no-deal is unlikely. Few MPs want such a drastic breakaway, and many will start to get antsy as the deadline fast approaches.

It is almost certain that some form of deal will be hammered out, at the very least to allow for a transition period after March 2019. This will allow time for free trade agreements to be worked out with the rest of Europe.

 

The UK housing market giant

The UK housing market as a whole soared to record highs in the past few years. Research by property firm Savills showed the total value of UK housing stock had increased by £190 bil to its highest level ever — a mind-boggling £7.29 trn.

“Our analysis demonstrates the scale of the housing market and underlines the importance of housing to the economies of London and the UK as a whole, both as an asset class and store of private wealth,” said Lawrence Bowles, residential research analyst at Savills.

Growth of UK market 2008-2018 (Source: Savills)

Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, where market values remained relatively stagnant until 2013, the UK housing market continues to grow in the face of Brexit. Growth pushed up by 2.7% in 2018.

“It’s great that we’re seeing more housing delivery, but development will have to make up a much higher proportion of new housing value if we are to come anywhere near building the homes this country needs,” Mr Bowles added.

Right now England is facing its biggest housing shortfall ever, with a backlog of 4 million homes.

Total housing need in England (Source: Heriot-Watt University)

 

Compelling reasons to invest

Advisory firm Ernst and Young forecasts an upward trend for the UK’s GDP, predicting growth by 6.9% from 2019- 2022.

Predictions for future earnings and inflation in the UK (Source: Ernst & Young)

Spending power will also start to increase this year as earnings are expected to rise by as much as 3.0% while inflation is predicted to drop to 2.0%.

Once a deal has been struck, the British pound is expected to go up. Property firm Colliers International predicts a 5% to 10% appreciation in value, while global assets manager Aberdeen Standard Investments says the sterling might potentially climb by 15% from its current level within 3 months of a deal.

Recovery of the pound will slow inflation and lead to stronger income growth that will support prices. The high-end residential sector will benefit from greater certainty by foreign expats working in London and the preservation of the UK’s financial services sector.

Savills forecasts UK house prices to rise 14.8% from 2019-2023, although there will be significant regional variation.

Where in the UK should investors look to gain the most in 2019? The timeless advice is to look for cities with strong fundamentals, e.g. a thriving local economy and industry. Three UK cities in particular that we recommend investors to keep their eyes on this year are London, Manchester, and Birmingham.

 

London

Property in the capital now makes up a quarter of the total UK housing value. A decade ago, it was just a fifth of the domestic market.

The London market is now worth a stunning £1.77 trn, over four times the combined value of Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cardiff, Bristol, Liverpool, and Sheffield — all cities which saw higher rates of price growth than the capital in 2018.

The city may have experienced a slowdown since the Referendum, but that has not deterred overseas investors. London was the top city in 2017 globally for cross-border office investment, ahead of New York, Frankfurt, Berlin and Paris.

Last year saw nearly one in five (18%) new-build homes in London being purchased by overseas investors, 61% of which hailed from Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and China.

Property firm JLL expects a bounce back after Brexit. Adam Challis, head of residential research at JLL, says that values will nudge up next year before accelerating faster with a greater sense of job security.

“Once we have confirmation of a deal and a reasonable transition period, people will start to feel more confident and this will encourage homeowners and investors to buy again.”

JLL predicts that the average price of a new-build home in Zones 1 and 2 will jump 17.6% between Brexit and 2023, making central London property a good buy for investors right now.

House price growth will be driven by the escalating supply crisis within the capital. Housing starts are expected to remain around 20,000 units a year over the next three years, and begin to rise towards 25,000 a year by 2023. This falls a long way short of the Mayor of London’s target of 66,000 new homes per year.

 

Manchester

The housing market is booming in the UK’s ‘second city’. Greater Manchester’s population has surpassed 2.7 million, and is predicted to rise to almost 3 million by 2031, with the City of Manchester alone accounting for 36% of the growth.

The Government projected that if house-building efforts do not catch up with projected growth in households, there could potentially be 1,500 more families than homes in 2026 — and 9,400 more by 2037!

Anthony Stankard, from agents Reside on Deansgate, said: “People follow jobs, and the strength of Manchester and the city region is in its continued economic strength.

“The airport, together with Airport City and MediaCity are key factors, but underpinning it all we have the universities. The newly announced Faculty of Science (of Manchester Metropolitan University) alone will provide enough jobs on its own to fill a couple of residential towers.

“And what Manchester has – and what cannot be replicated – is an energy. And the demand we are seeing just keeps on going up.”

With the the new High Speed Rail (HS2) due for completion in 2026, Manchester will be eight minutes over an hour from the capital.

Data from Hometrack showed Manchester at the number one spot among all UK cities, with a price growth of 6.6% in the 12 months to November 2018.

Houses in the city are priced at an affordable average of £168,900, just over a third of London’s £481,800.

JLL predicts house prices in the city will go up by 14.5% from 2019-2022, whilst rental growth is expected to reach 13% over the same time period.

England’s top 5 cities for price growth in the 12 months to Nov 2018 (Source: Hometrack)

 

Birmingham

Birmingham’s position at the heart of the UK plays a major part in the city’s ever-growing attraction as a hotspot for business and manufacturing.

According to a study by consulting group PwC and think tank Demos, Birmingham is the fastest improving city in the country to live and work in. Falling unemployment and a wave of regeneration projects boosted the city to its place at the top.

A torrent of regeneration started in the city after it won the bid to host the 2022 Commonwealth Games, with developments such as Birmingham Smithfield, Arena Central, Paradise, and the Midlands Metro extension currently underway.

Birmingham also has the honour of being the youngest city in Europe. Out of a population of 1.1 million, nearly 46% is estimated to be under the age of 30.

The city’s youthfulness and strategic location have made it a hotbed for start-ups. The city consistently had the highest number of start-ups in the country outside of London since 2016.

Once the HS2 is complete, Birmingham will be a mere 49 minutes away from the capital.

Data from Hometrack showed Birmingham at second place among cities in England, with a price growth of 6.3% in the 12 months to November 2018.

Houses in the city are priced at an average of £163,600, which is slightly less but on par with Manchester.

JLL predicts house prices in the city to go up by 15% from 2019-2022, with rental growth expected to reach 13.5% over the same time period.

The British pound is set to rise quickly, which means property investors can get better returns by buying now. Don’t miss out! If you are looking for property in the cities of London, Manchester, Birmingham and more — give us a call at (+65) 3163 8343 (Singapore), 03-2162 2260 (Malaysia), or email us at info@csiprop.com!

If you would like to read more on property in the UK and Australia, check out our Investment Guide here

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Article by Ian Choong 
Edits by Vivienne Pal

Sources:

  • https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39732816
  • https://www.savills.co.uk/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/273857/uk-housing-stock-gains-%C2%A3190-billion-and-hits-a-record-%C2%A37.3-trillion-valuation
  • https://www.savills.co.uk/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/170245-1/savills-forecasts-uk-residential-market-in-the-next-5-years
  • https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/
  • https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/buying-investing-property-manchester-centre-14951935
  • http://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/regional-residential-forecasts-2018
  • http://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/residential-forecasts-west-midlands-report-2018
  • https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/07/birmingham-uk-city-oxford-reading-pwc-demos
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Perth Set to be the Next Melbourne

Perth is set to be the next Melbourne, a new report from Infrastructure Australia indicates. After a stagnant 2017, Corelogic predicts that house prices in the inner city will rise by 3.3% this year and 4.1% in 2019. With prices at an affordable rate, property situated in choice locations are ripe for the picking and investors stand a chance to reap returns from the growth of the property market in the future. 

Currently Perth is Australia’s fourth largest city by population. By 2046 it is forecast to leapfrog Brisbane into third place, with 4.3 million people — the current population of Melbourne. And if the Government’s recent proposal to restrict immigration to Sydney and Melbourne goes through, the city’s eventual population may exceed even that figure.

Australians traditionally are resistant to the idea of living in apartments, and this is more so for those living in Perth. Just 6.6% of the city’s residents live in apartments, half the national average of 13.1%. This will change as numbers increase — as a large-scale city grows, it expands not just outwards but upwards as well.

The Perth suburban sprawl stretches along the Western coastline for about 150km, making it almost nine times as large as Singapore, but with just over a third of its population. As the population grows to a similar scale as Melbourne, apartment living will become more widespread.

The 2016 Australian Census showed that there is one occupied apartment for every five (1:5) occupied separate houses in Australia; compared with one to every seven (1:7) 25 years ago. Apartments are also getting taller. Twenty years ago, about 20% of apartments were in blocks at least four storeys high, with the proportion now closer to 40%.

Over the past decade, the number of apartments in the Perth council area alone has increased by about 150%. Perth has seen changes in planning that recognises this, and state and local governments are encouraging strategic placing of mixed-developments where they benefit the most, close to existing good transport, infrastructure and in high-amenity locations.

One example of these developments is NV, a new off-plan apartment within Perth’s central business district (CBD), benefitting from the completion of the Perth City Link.

Perth City Link is a major urban renewal and redevelopment project to the tune of over A$5 billion, playing a central role in regenerating Perth’s entertainment, cultural, shopping and infrastructure links. Rail and bus links have been completed, connecting the city centre with the Northbridge entertainment precinct. Currently, further development is ongoing on a mix of retail, tourist, office and residential accommodation.

Corelogic looked at changes in the property market across Australia over the last 25 years, and found that prices in Perth grew at an annual 6.7% for houses and 6% for apartment units since 1993 — making it the third best property market after Sydney and Melbourne.

Located on Murray Str, in the heart of Perth city, NV is within 1 minute reach of top designer brands (King’s Str) and a vibrant F&B & lifestyle area (Shafto Ln). NV boasts top notch lifestyle amenities and is a trophy property in this growing city. NV will be envy of all. INVEST NOW BEFORE STAMP DUTY INCREASE OF 7% ON 1 JAN 2019.

Following the nation’s property downturn, prices have slipped by more than 10% across the city since mid-2014, although some areas have managed to be relatively unscathed. The outlook for the next two years is that improvement in the economy and population growth will stabilise the Perth real estate market. After a stagnant 2017, Corelogic predicts that house prices in the inner city will rise by 3.3% this year and 4.1% in 2019.

RED ALERT: Perth will be imposing additional stamp duty for foreign investors in January, which is an extra 7% on the property price. Investors looking to buy property can avoid the hike by signing contracts before Jan 1st, 2019.

Interested in to get into the Perth property market before the 7% tax kicks in? One of the latest developments in the city’s prime CBD, NV Apartments, has a superb location with a whole host of luxurious amenities, from just A$313,000. Act quickly and give us a call at (+65) 3163 8343 (Singapore), 03-2162 2260 (Malaysia), or email us at info@csiprop.com.

By Ian Choong
Edited by Vivienne Pal 

Sources:
  • https://thewest.com.au/lifestyle/real-estate/perth-destined-to-become-the-next-melbourne-ng-b88972063z
  • https://thewest.com.au/business/housing-market/perth-property-market-suffers-worst-fall-as-inner-city-and-south-west-suburbs-tipped-for-revival-ng-b88962488z
  • http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-16/perth-apartment-development-debate-suburban-sprawl/9324992
  • https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/new-figures-show-more-perth-residents-living-in-apartments-ng-8f60dd3e490dbac3aa5329aa42e51184
  • https://cdn.mra.wa.gov.au/production/documents-media/documents/central-perth/perth-city-link/file/perth-city-link-fact-sheet.pdf
  • https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2018/08/$158-million-development-approved-for-Perth-City-Link.aspx
  • https://www.finance.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_State_Revenue/Duties/Duties_Circular_17-Foreign_Buyer_Duty.pdf
  • Featured image: State Library & TripAdvisor

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